The past 5 trading days have shown strong reversal patterns for these three miners and although, less pronounced - $VALE. submitted by vitocorlene to Vitards [link] [comments] $BHP, $RIO &$VALE - #2, #3 & #5 miners in the world respectively. #2 BHP Group Ltd. (BHP)
https://preview.redd.it/v43u814qkdg61.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f0fde0484907cf816ce1f5489dea0e40b0f86832 https://preview.redd.it/yfbb6i2vwdg61.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=652a0d1c8a8f2efa9366cb5d5e79a4bd779cd4c6 #3 Rio Tinto PLC (RIO)
#5 Vale SA (VALE)
https://preview.redd.it/avmhkuuwkdg61.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5f590de8987b9c5dff61f7d3dd1904605d52cfd I know what you are thinking - "this must be part of the steel play you've been talking about non-stop since December. . .blah, blah, blah. . .yeah, we know. . .don't need anymore CB from you." That's Confirmation Bias for the newbies. I know, if you are here you know about steel and why I like $MT - hey, it was up today - I think we see more price run due to $MT being able to unload $CLF shares - which I also think is bullish for $CLF and yes, I'm buying more $CLF on the dip tomorrow. It was a brilliant move, in my opinion, by our boy, LG @ $CLF. He clears the deck before the earnings call and this is seen as a bullish move to pay off 9.875% high interest notes with a share offering of 60 million, 40 million of which is being sold by $MT. 20 million shares by $CLF. I'll have more coming on these two, but I like the move for both. So, back to the miners - $BHP, $FCX, $RIO & $VALE. I do like the iron ore play on steel and believe we will see elevated prices considerably above historic norms for the remainder of 2021. However, what I like more than iron ore are the metals that are going into smartphones, computers, and batteries for EV's and infrastructure. So, we have: $BHP - https://www.bhp.com/our-businesses/ $FCX - https://fcx.com/ $RIO - https://www.riotinto.com/products $VALE - http://www.vale.com/EN/business/mining/Pages/default.aspx The increased demand of: NICKEL - been on a tear since March lows https://www.investing.com/commodities/nickel-historical-data - the price is more tied to stainless steel, but Battery Plays are driving speculation. COPPER - The price of copper is believed to provide a reliable measure of economic health, as changes to copper prices can suggest global growth or an upcoming recession. With high volatility and strong liquidity, copper is attractive to traders. Copper spot price is affected by extraction and transportation costs, as well as supply and demand. https://preview.redd.it/q7im2jyesdg61.png?width=2004&format=png&auto=webp&s=647e1ce78cdef7e774eb8b6161ee18c019d2c994 ZINC - sharp recovery since March lows, following all other metals - https://uszinc.com/services/lme-pricing/ ALUMINUM - recovery following other metals to new highs: https://preview.redd.it/4t5icp7atdg61.png?width=1222&format=png&auto=webp&s=483d5c88a01399ea47ad28278d0a9f27f2bdbe5e BTW, I'm bullish AF on $AA, but that too is a DD for another day. Now the Confirmation Bias: COPPERhttps://www.mining.com/copper-price-lifted-by-us-stimulus-china-inventory-squeeze/Copper prices rose on Monday as optimism around a US stimulus raised hopes of higher demand for metals and a recovery in the world’s biggest economy. The copper price rose as much as 1.3% to $3.6745 ($8,100 a tonne) on the Comex market on Monday, with March delivery contracts back within shouting distance of multi-year highs hit early in January. The metal has rallied nearly 90% since the depth of the pandemic in March. Thinning inventoriesThe rise in copper prices is underpinned by thinning inventories that pointed to higher demand for the industrial metal.“Inventories are still quite low on exchanges. That gives good indication that manufacturing demand for copper is present and that its not just a speculative story,” Nitesh Shah, an analyst at investment manager WisdomTree, told Reuters. In China, the world’s top consumer, copper inventories normally accumulate in the run up to the Lunar New Year as businesses close for the week-long festivities. But this year, Chinese inventories have dropped to near decade lows on robust demand from factories, which are maintaining high operating rates due to shortened shutdown periods and tighter travel restrictions for workers. Meanwhile, effects of the coronavirus pandemic on copper supply continues to be felt. In what was supposed to be a year of supply growth, global mined output during the first 10 months of 2020 were 0.5% lower compared to 2019 levels, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). In Peru, the world’s second-biggest producer, copper output plunged 12.5% to 2.15 million tonnes in 2020, the country’s Energy and Mines Ministry said on Monday. Copper miners gainDespite copper prices hitting a slump in the second half of January, the world’s top copper producers have continued to rally this year after spectacular gains in 2020.Shares of BHP, the largest publicly traded copper company, are up 6% year-to-date. Copper, like most commodities, has been a cyclical investment whose demand ebbs and flows with economic cycles. Traditionally, roughly half of all copper demand has come from new building construction and infrastructure, China has been the single biggest market by far. With many global economies in or entering recovery phases, cyclical demand is on the upswing. Green initiatives around the world offer a secular tailwind as well. The European Green Deal, President Joe Biden’s ambitious climate plan, and China’s target of carbon neutral by 2060 all point to increasing incremental demand for copper. Although mining stocks have in many cases quadrupled since their March 2020 lows, many names are still trading below their previous highs, and at a time when fundamentals are improving. Take Freeport-McMoRan, $FCX, a Phoenix-based company whose business is roughly 70% copper, 20% gold, and 10% other. The stock plummeted to $7 a share during the selloff last spring and has since recovered to a recent $30. But it is still about half what it was at previous highs of around $60 in early 2008 and 2011. The big news on copper yesterday was regarding $RIO and the Mongolian situation. Feb 8 (Reuters) - Mongolia's government is seeking to cancel a deal with miner Rio Tinto to expand the OyuTolgoi copper mine in the Gobi Desert and replace it with a new agreement, the Financial Times reported. https://www.miningweekly.com/article/mongolia-seeks-more-tax-revenue-from-rio-copper-mine-expansion--source-2021-02-09/rep_id:3650 Many thought this was potentially bad news for $RIO, but it appears it's about working out a little more tax dollars for the government and a deal will be struck. The underground expansion will push annual production to nearly 500,000 tonnes per year, making it among the world’s biggest copper mines Global copper demandAs mentioned above, it’s not likely that copper demand will slow down in 2021.In the US, new home and home renovation demand spiked since the pandemic started, along with electronics demand. Analysts at CitiBank expect the copper market to shift into a deficit in the second half of the year with a minor surplus overall for 2021, Reuters reported. They also forecast deficits in 2022 and 2023. The US Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development reported building permits in December increased by 4.5% compared to November and 17.3% above the December 2019 rate. Privately owned housing continued to increase in December, rising by 5.8% from the previous month and by 5.2% compared to December 2019. The uptrend started in September 2020. China will continue to play an important role in the copper market. The country accounts for about half of global primary consumption, which is then used to manufacture export goods. According to the aforementioned Reuters report, appliances output also increased in China. Similarly, China’s refrigerators exports went up by 45% in December 2020 compared to December 2019. During the same period, exports of microwave ovens rose by 35%. Indonesian copper smelterIndonesian politician Luhut Pandjaitan, said Freeport-McMoRan, $FCX and Tsingshan Holding Group reached a $2.8 billion deal to build a copper smelter in Indonesia’s Weda Bay. The smelter would process copper concentrate from the Grasberg mine. Luhut did not report a timeline, per the report.“The smelter will produce copper pipes and wires of which output can be worth $10 billion or more,” the minister reportedly told IDX Channel. The smelter will aim to produce copper products to be used in lithium battery components. Indonesia is working to build an electric vehicle supply chain, as it is also a major nickel producer. ALUMINUMhttps://www.thomasnet.com/insights/aluminum-can-sourcing-sees-unprecedented-surge-amid-white-claw-truly-hard-seltzer-craze/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-19/aluminum-buyers-forced-to-pay-up-after-underestimating-recovery - more profits coming. All told, the outlook for aluminum in 2021 looks better than it did even three months ago. Fourth quarter prices rose about 9% yoy and 12% qoq to $1,914/t, the best prices since the fourth quarter of 2018. What's more, with the global economy recovering, management is calling for roughly 7% demand growth in '21, ahead of supply growth, and a more balance market for the year. With that, I think there's a good chance for aluminum prices to average out over $2,100/t in 2021 - the best price on an annual basis since 2011 (though just barely above 2008). As always, a great deal rides on China - Chinese producers have a history of being less than responsible when it comes to supply, but Chinese demand is looking more robust and the government has been increasingly stringent with less efficient, more polluting smelters, so the volume risk here may not be as troubling as before. Then the big news many in the US had been waiting for and potentially an insight to what Biden will do about Section 232 Steel Tariffs; https://agmetalminer.com/2021/02/08/aluminum-mmi-us-reinstates-tariff-on-aluminum-imported-from-uae/ High aluminum scrap demandA Midwest-based trader told Construction & Demolition Recycling that demand for aluminum scrap remains high at secondary smelters that supply the automotive industry in the U.S.Chad Kripke, an executive vice president of Kripke Enterprise, a nonferrous scrap brokerage firm, confirmed that many sellers are relying on the spot market rather than signing contracts for 2021. This signals that it is a seller’s market. This market environment is due to the reduced flows of scrap, which has caused spreads to tighten. As a result, secondary producers are opting to purchase scrap at what they might view as high prices rather than risking a lack of material. The Application of the World Aluminum Alloy Sheet Market 2021-2027 as follows: Building and construction Automobiles and transport Aerospace and defence Industrial and general engineering This screams recovery play and Infrastructure spending. NICKEL & ZINCYou really can't mention one without the other, especially when it comes to batteries:Nickel-zinc (NiZn) chemistries are the primary competitors displacing lead-acid in the marketplace. Both promise smaller footprints and longer operational life than lead-acid batteries. While the tradeoffs of lithium-ion batteries are more well known, given their wide use in other energy storage applications, NiZn technology has specific advantages in terms of reliability, safety, and sustainability over both lead-acid and lithium-ion solutions. It is abundantly clear that the future of high energy batteries will converge on layered oxides increasingly rich in nickel. ... Early lithium-ion batteries comprised a cathode of lithium cobalt oxide [LiCoO2] and an anode of graphitic carbon. Cobalt can be replaced by other metals such as manganese, nickel, and aluminum. https://preview.redd.it/5vs07d488eg61.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e7482bf908e4c8c665cb815fdc257f77c6390b1 With the rising demand for EVs, the need to secure critical nickel supplies is becoming ever more pressing for battery producers and automakers alike. Fitch currently forecasts global EV sales to rise by 41.9% to reach over 4.3mn units in 2021 with sales expected to breach the 14mn mark by 2030. This accelerated pace of EV sales growth will place strong upward pressure on the price of raw materials used in batteries and will force battery producers to develop more affordable batteries, Fitch asserts, which more often than not means higher nickel content and lower cobalt content. And the 500 Pound Gorilla - $TSLA https://www.mining.com/tesla-investment-to-position-indonesia-as-ev-battery-production-hub-report/ BTW, do you know who the largest nickel miner in Indonesia is? $VALE http://www.vale.com/indonesia/EN/investors/indonesia-investors/company/at-glance/Pages/default.aspx $VALE + $TSLA = $VALE's moon rocket. . . As I have said from my first postings in this series on steel, scrap, ore - these metals I have just listed will be the complimentary plays becoming the body of 2021, with steel remaining the backbone. Some extra knowledge on the most expensive metals as of today and a good stock to capture the increased costs and demand: RhodiumRelatively unknown to the layperson, rhodium is quietly one of the hottest trades right now, after a price surge of more than 30% this year. Rhodium previously peaked – and quickly crashed – in 2008 at more than $10,000 per troy ounce (ozt), but the metal is now trading above that 2008 high on the back of a swell in demand from the automotive industry.Rhodium is used in catalytic converters, a part of vehicle exhaust systems that reduce toxic gas emissions and pollutants. According to S&P Global Platts, almost 80% of demand for rhodium and palladium comes from the global automotive industry. Fortunately for South Africa at least, around 80% of all rhodium is mined within its borders. Part of the reason for the metal’s price leap is its rarity. Annual rhodium production sits at around 30 tonnes – to place that in context, gold miners annually dig up between 2,500 and 3,000 tonnes of the precious metal. Rhodium also benefitted from the Volkswagen emissions scandal, or Dieselgate, the 2015 emissions scandal that rocked the automotive industry. With major economies including China and India tightening emissions rules, platinum group metals (PGM) miners are anticipating good times ahead for rhodium. PalladiumRhodium’s little brother palladium also did well out of the Dieselgate scandal. After sales of diesel vehicles slumped and petrol alternatives came back into fashion, platinum – used primarily in catalytic converters for diesel vehicles – took a tumble, while petrol-friendly palladium rose.Palladium is the most expensive of the four major precious metals – gold, silver and platinum being the others. It is rarer than platinum, and is used in larger quantities for catalytic converters. In the near-term, the demand for metals used in catalytic converters is expected to be steady, buoyed by growing automotive sales in Asia. However, the increased uptake of battery-electric vehicles – which do not use catalytic converters – could see palladium demand take a hit. PlatinumThe namesake of the platinum-group metals is also the worst-performing on the market, having taken a huge hit from the Volkswagen emissions scandal. Platinum’s primary use has been in catalytic converters for diesel vehicles – 45% of the platinum sold in 2014 went to the automotive industry. As consumers and manufacturers moved away from diesel in the wake of Dieselgate, platinum lost out to palladium, which performs better in petrol vehicles.Platinum traditionally traded at a higher price than gold and combined with platinum’s rarity compared with gold, “platinum” as an adjective has come to be associated with a higher level of prestige than gold. Despite platinum’s troubles and gold now trading above it, that reputation has stayed. Platinum deposits are largely concentrated in South Africa, with the country supplying around three-quarters of the world’s demand. Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin make up the top global platinum producers. Which brings me to Sibayne Stillwater - $SBSW, which has also shown a strong reversal over the same time as these other stocks shared above: https://preview.redd.it/qo083s8ofgg61.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c54b8a6a79bb8d85fd72eadf13cf2735bf3a8b3 https://www.sibanyestillwater.com/about-us/ Sibanye-Stillwater is a leading international precious metals mining company, with a diverse portfolio of platinum group metal (PGM) operations in the United States and Southern Africa, gold operations and projects in South Africa, and copper, gold and PGM exploration properties in North and South America. It is the world’s largest primary producer of platinum and rhodium, the second largest primary producer of palladium and a top tier gold producer, ranking third globally, on a gold-equivalent basis, as well as a significant producer of other PGMs and associated minerals such as chrome. SBSW is also the globally leading recycler and processor of spent PGM catalytic converter materials. https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-05/Sibanye-Stillwater-earnings-surge-on-higher-metal-prices-and-solid-performance.html Sibanye-Stillwater said despite COVID-19 disruptions, its expected earnings increase was underpinned by a solid operational performance, higher metals prices and a weaker rand. "The production contribution from the Marikana operations for the full 12-month period, following the acquisition of Lonmin in June 2019 and the realisation of significantly higher than forecast synergies, along with a notable return to profitability from the SA gold operations, following the strike in H1 2019, were the main drivers of this operational performance," the company said. The Minerals Council South Africa recently estimated the country's production was down 10-12% in 2020 due to the pandemic and logistical shortcomings but mining GDP was only down 4% thanks to the rise in commodity prices. Everything I have laid out on previous DD's regarding steel and metals are all based on recovery demand, global infrastructure investment which will ultimately cost $$$. This money is going to be printed by the US treasury, which will further weaken the $USD and this weakening in the value of the dollar will increase the value of commodities proportionally. https://preview.redd.it/6jhk8gigjgg61.png?width=1948&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a1084854d8a719bf0f1a70c3f798720f4e3ad9e Expect the value of the DXY to touch 52 week lows of $89.21 and most likely set lower lows as TRILLIONS more are printed and put into the economy. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/14/powell-sees-no-interest-rate-hikes-on-the-horizon-as-long-as-inflation-stays-low.html The Fed currently is keeping its benchmark short-term borrowing rate anchored near zero and is buying $120 billion in bonds. At its December meeting, it said those measures would stay in place until substantial progress is made towards the Fed’s inflation and employment goals. That means the central bank will be more inclined to allow inflation to run higher than the standard 2% target before hiking interest rates. I believe we will see inflation continue to run on commodities. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/feds-esther-george-cautions-that-inflation-could-rise-faster-than-expected.html Inflation could rise faster than “some might expect” as the economy recovers from the pandemic, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said. Lastly, oil. I have said steel will follow oil and usually it is 6 weeks behind moves in oil prices. https://preview.redd.it/szjhhl88ngg61.png?width=1592&format=png&auto=webp&s=e79b4671a1d719202d6d98a0fdd1e192f93c24e0 After a rocky 12 months, oil prices — which got crushed when Covid-19 slashed demand for energy around the world — are roaring back. What's happening: Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, have breached $60 per barrel, their highest level since January 2020.The immediate catalyst appeared to be weekend remarks from President Joe Biden that the United States will not lift sanctions on Iran to get the country back to the negotiating table. But oil prices have been on the upswing for months thanks to optimism that coronavirus vaccines will unleash demand while producers avoid flooding the market with supply. The bonus with $BHP is you get oil and steel in one play. Again, I am a value investor and I like to find value where others shy away from and commodities are the red-headed step child that I believe will shine in 2021 for all the reasons I have laid out here and in previous DD's. I am not your personal financial advisor and do your own research. Good luck! -Vito |
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