Please note: This game has significant disparities in performance, player experience, and review scores between the PC, next-gen consoles, Xbox One, and PS4 versions.
The OpenCritic team and several critics suspect that the developer, CD PROJEKT RED, intentionally sought to hide the true state of the game on Xbox One and PS4, with requirements such as only allowing pre-rendered game footage in reviews and not issuing review copies for PS4 and Xbox One versions.
This notice will be taken down in February 2021.
I have finished Cyberpunk but I will not have a review up today as I could not comply with CDPR"s embargo requirement that prohibited us from using our own recorded gameplay in the review. Instead, we were told to use b-roll, which is basically trailer footage.Fabian Mario Döhla (CDPR PR) regarding reviews being on the Day 1 patch or not (getting conflicting info regarding this so take it with a grain of salt):
Reviews should not be vehicles for rolling out more marketing material, so I'll put my review up when I'm able to show you the reality of the game with my own footage.
I'm also disappointed that no console review code was provided to any outlet...
Console games are often reviewed without their day one or even day zero patches, so Cyberpunk would not have been special in this regard. Its really lame that no reviewer can tell you how this game runs on console on the review embargo.
I absolutely love this game and I think CDPR did extraordinary work, but its clearly unfinished at this point and no review relying on trailer footage alone can properly convey that.
They are not - a bunch of issues reviewers encountered (and reported) have been fixed already, some more are part of the update.Toms Hardware Performance Review:
The minimum GPU listed is a GTX 780, with GTX 1060 6GB recommended for 1080p high, RTX 2060 for 1440p ultra, and an RTX 2080 Super for 4K ultra. Then there's the ray tracing additions, with the RTX 2060 listed as the minimum for 1080p and RT medium, 3070 for 1440p and RT ultra, and 3080 for 4K RT ultra. Based on what we're seeing, it looks like those recommendations are for 30-40 fps.
Areajugones - Víctor Rodríguez - Spanish - 9.5 / 10Video Review - Quote not available
Cyberpunk 2077 is the ultimate power fantasy. A video game that takes the best of modern RPG, first-person shooter, stealth, and the open world and masterfully blends it into a single product. If Skyrim and GTA V marked a before and after for their genres at the beginning of the 2010s, Cyberpunk 2077 is called to do the same from this 2020.
The game may not be perfect but given CD project Red's reputation for fixing and updating games Cyberpunk has a bright neon-lit future. It can proudly sit among its influences of Ghost in the Shell, Blade Runner and Neuromancer (as well as games like Deus Ex, System Shock) with its augmented head held high.
It's been a long wait, but the end result is a massive sprawling RPG with an incredible story, heart-pounding action, solid mechanics and customisation, offering you unparalleled player choice in a deep, atmospheric world that I can't wait to plug myself back into.
Cyberpunk 2077 is a victim of bloat, but you can choose to ignore a lot of it and take in the sights. That's where Night City is at its best, and I sincerely suggest that you take your time going through it, as rushing will only lead to disappointment. Even just strolling through though though, you'll probably be left wanting more.
We could wax lyrical about how good this game is for another ten years, and we still think the conversation would be relevant - so yes, we think Cyberpunk 2077 is the game of the decade. This is an event, and a big moment in gaming, because the brilliant Cyberpunk 2077 is laying down the stepping stones for greater feats in the future.
Enternity.gr - Nikos Papakonstantinou - Greek - 9.5 / 10Video Review - Quote not available
CD Projekt RED is willing to take an even bigger risk and dare something very different, combining elements that they have proven to know well and elements which they have no previous experience in.
Exceptional characters, heartfelt storytelling and enjoyable action threaten to be engulfed by endless bugs and hasty, uneven design.
And it is precisely for this reason that, despite all the technical problems of the production, we cannot in any way fail to assign a vote of excellence to the work of CDPR: the defects will disappear over time, but already now Cyberpunk 2077 is a title which undoubtedly deserves a place of honor in all players' library.
Measured against the extreme expectations, Cyberpunk 2077 can't fulfill any of them. But all in all, despite the countless small weaknesses and inconsequences, with interesting characters, great story and dialogues or the freedom concerning gameplay, CD Projekt delivers a unique and great RPG that every fan of the genre needs to play.
Cyberpunk 2077 proves that the developers have improved their skills since fantastic The Witcher 3. It is an excellent action RPG that would benefit from a longer delay to polish the various issues. However, no amount of bugs can diminish the immense pleasure of exploring this world.
The era of the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X has arrived, but Cyberpunk 2077 is currently running on those next-gen platforms via backwards compatibility. A true next-gen update isn't due until sometime in 2021. That means CD Projekt Red developed a game for three platforms, and it's running on an acceptable level on just one (PC), provided you have the hardware. That is just plain ridiculous.
An open world you can get lost in and continue finding new things to do
Cyberpunk 2077 is of massive ambition, and the characters in it are brilliantly written and performed.
It's definitely feels like with Cyberpunk 2077 CD Projekt RED tried to tell a really meaningful story, while using as a backdrop truly a unique setting. And all the while the developers made sure that the game still feels approachable by all kind of people, and that it presents itself with insane graphical fidelity painting an image of an eerily realistic world of tommorow. We doubt there's too many people who don't believe in CD Projekt RED, but in case you're one of them, be warned - Cyberpunk 2077 is something that will change the way you look at the gaming industry as a whole.
This is an outstanding and highly enjoyable game, but take your time with it, do all the side missions (think of them as extensions of the main quest, in fact) and don’t rush the main storyline. You should absolutely take the earliest available opportunity to explore Night City and everything it has to offer. From the visuals to the music to the vibe, it’s a superb experience and one I am looking forward to spending a lot more time with.
Cyberpunk fascinates with its story and characters, but presents itself in a partially desolate state on consoles.
Cyberpunk 2077 isn’t perfect, but it is ambitious. It marries a gripping story with a huge open world absolutely dripping with atmosphere; one in which, after fifty hours of gameplay, I still feel like I’ve only scratched its surface. Even now I’m itching to jump back in and complete yet more side jobs, not only because they’re enjoyable, but also just in case they offer V more options when it comes to ending their story.
Cyberpunk 2077 has standout side quests and strong main characters, though its buggy, superficial world and lack of purpose bring it down.
A remarkably well-executed open world game whose greatest heights exceed its deepest failings.
Cyberpunk 2077 is a new masterpiece from CD Projekt RED, a huge, dense, vibrant, colorfoul and dark Sci-Fi RPG that any fan of the genre should step in. First because it will provide the sensation that the story really depends on you choices and that you have everything you need for your playstyle. Then because streets, stores, buildings, inhabitants of Night City won't get out of your head easily. You'll be happy to interact with Keanu Reeves, but the real star is this city and all it provides in terms of atmosphere, game mechanics and stories.
[OpenCritic note: Gianni Molinaro separately reviewed the next-gen (10) and current-gen (4) versions. The scores have been averaged.]
Cyberpunk 2077 is the cyberpunk game of my dreams, it provides one of the most highly detailed environments I’ve ever seen, with an incredibly expansive and immersive narrative.
Cyberpunk 2077 is a great game, but it could have been an incredible game that defined a generation. Instead, it falls victim to its own ambition and the industry's constant desire to push, push, push it out. In its current state, it's not for the faint of heart, and even hardcore Cyberpunk fans may struggle to stay interested amidst all the crashes and issues. If you have yet to pick it up, wait a few months and you could very well be treated to the experience we were all hoping for at launch.
Although there still exist a lot of technical glitches, Cyberpunk 2077 stands out in terms of cyberpunk concept, story-telling, characters, level-design, combat, and so forth. It's a pleasure to spend hundreds of hours in the Night City, and I believe it would be one of the greatest open-world RPGs in the next decade.
It’s fine to make a game like that — for many, that’s the promise of Cyberpunk 2077. It just wasn’t the promise to me.
What Cyberpunk 2077 lacks in core campaign length, it makes up for with depth and soul, offering a world of intrigue and violence unlike any other.
The dark future certainly looks promising, thanks to the collective imagination of the team at CD Projekt Red, which seems to know no bounds. Cyberpunk 2077 certainly took a while to come to our hands, but be glad it’s finally here, for it is here to stay for a long time to come. And it certainly did not disappoint.
Early Impressions Discussion: They should have delayed this game even more
One word: undercooked
Despite a few flaws, Cyberpunk 2077 is one of the most consistently astounding pieces of media I've ever had the pleasure of consuming.
Cyberpunk 2077 is one of the greatest RPGs of the generation. We love Night City, its characters and great writing for every mission. It is also one of the best looking games out there (if your PC is powerful enough).
Cyberpunk 2077 throws you into a beautiful, dense cityscape and offers a staggering amount of flexibility in how you choose to take it from there.
Cyberpunk 2077 is like an addictive, huge, impressive braindance, where the feelings are real, while sometimes you see the puppet strings. It's an ambitious RPG, where narration, decisions and dialogue are far more important than combat, wrapped around a lot of fun, but usual and not always perfect, action mechanics. Engaging and marvellous to play, Night City on high-end PCs is stunning to see and super stylish. Cyberpunk 2077 is worth the wait, because the adventure of V and Johnny Silverhand is greater than the sum of its parts.
Cyberpunk 2077 offers a great sci-fi experience in which you can get lost for hours. It is not a revolutionary title in its genre, but it brings fresh changes. Whether it's new tasks, well-written dialogues, and characters, good stylized graphics, or very pleasant controls. Decision-making constructions leave you free where you need them. Conversely, they bind you in places where it is important. Everything fits together thanks to that. And if you were afraid that Cyberpunk 2077 would be a debacle. Throw this worry behind your head. Enjoy Night City to the fullest!
I haven’t fallen in love with playing Cyberpunk 2077, but I haven’t loathed it either. Some moments have been exciting or moving, while others have just felt like stuff to do.
A more emotive and engaging title is hard to find.
Cyberpunk 2077 offers an experience that players who love the genre should definitely try despite the bugs and big problems it contains.
A stunning achievement in open world gameplay but one whose tonal inconsistencies and weak narrative undermines what could have been an all-time classic.
Some nice characters and stories nested in an astounding open world, undercut by jarring bugs at every turn.
Groundbreaking, but not quite as much as you're hoping it is. Cyberpunk 2077 doesn't surpass its brilliant influences, but in Night City, Johnny Silverhand, and its chilling vision of hyper-capitalism, it claims territory of its own.
I fell in love with Night City, warts and all. If its many bugs can get ironed out, Cyberpunk 2077 is a potential Game of the Year candidate. Here’s hoping that CD Projekt Red can quickly push out fixes.
Cyberpunk 2077 is huge, steeped in sex, satisfying shooting, and the expansion of individual elements delights. It's one of those productions you want to get ing into to get to know its charms and enjoy every moment in Night City.
Cyberpunk 2077 is dad rock, not new wave
Frankly, Cyberpunk 2077 is the best video game I've ever played
Cyberpunk 2077 is staggering, overwhelming, and even surprising at times in its spectacle. Although my first dozen hours with the game has been marred by easy-to-fix problems, Nighty City, along with all it offers and all that call it home, makes for an intoxicating escape. Here's hoping the next one hundred hours are as utterly compelling.
We're still playing Cyberpunk 2077 in order to bring you a finished review, but it's impossible to recommend picking this game up at launch on PS4 or PS4 Pro. On PS5 via backwards compatibility, there's still fun to be had - a glimpse of the game's excellent potential - but even then, it's crippled by bugs and crashing issues. There's something truly special at the core of Cyberpunk 2077, but in its current state, it's simply not good enough. So far, a colossal disappointment.
When Cyberpunk's grim setting and mix of gameplay systems land, it is a powerfully impressive experience - sprawling, dense, clever, witty, and most importantly damn good fun. Other times, it has all the charm of a moody, edgy teenager.
Absolutely stunning action game with a lot of content, deep RPG progres and dialogue. Another master-piece from CD Projekt Red!
An ambitious, maybe over ambitious, thrilling ride that falters when it comes to execution. The developer's strength shines through the world building and production, resulting in a unique mix that is let down by a myriad list of technical and AI problems.
Ultimately, it feels like Cyberpunk 2077 is a fitting bookend for the previous generation of games and a strong starting point for current-gen. Now it's time to start innovating again.
Spaziogames - Italian - 9.5 / 10Video Review - Quote not available
Cyberpunk 2077 traces a new path for the open-world RPGs, telling a thought-provoking story about the dangerous drifts of humankind.
The most important thing that everyone needs to know about Cyberpunk 2077 is that while it’s imperfect, it is without a doubt a superb game.
CD Projekt Red has set a new standard for what can be achieved in this sandbox. Cyberpunk 2077 is taking open-world gaming to the next generation.
Cyberpunk 2077 is a wild journey within an incredibly fascinating setting; some technical uncertainties destined to disappear and a partial repetitiveness limit its glory, but overall it is an adventure worthy of William Gibson himself. Cyberpunk 2077 allowed me to finally feel immersed in that pen & paper RPG I discovered in 1988, pouring rain clouding my view in a kaleidoscope of neon signs, just as I had imagined while leafing through those pages. Some may not consider it a perfect game, but I do.
I’m V and the game is Silverhand - I can’t get Cyberpunk 2077 out of my head. I’ve had it a week and played 70 hours, which is probably about as healthy as scooping out my face and replacing it with electronics, but it didn’t feel like work. Like a digital personality loaded onto a biochip, it felt like stepping into another life for a while. It’s a life I can’t wait to relive.
It might not reinvent the genre in every aspect, but for a fantastic story, an insanely detailed word, and brilliant dialogue, you’ve got to try it.
CD Projekt Red has created a triumphant RPG experience with Cyberpunk 2077, yet it often falters under the weight of its own ambition thanks to inconsistent writing and narrative
Too ambitious for its own good, Cyberpunk 2077 attempts to do too much and falters in its execution as a result. Despite its issues, it’s better than the sum of its parts and might be worth checking out for fans of action RPGs.
In the midst of such intense anticipation and scrutiny, it’s easy to get carried away with what Cyberpunk 2077 could have been. The final experience might be more familiar than many predicted, with plenty of elements that aren’t perfect, but it’s dripping with detail and engaging stories. With so much to see and do, Cyberpunk 2077 is the kind of RPG where you blink and hours go by, which is just what we need to finish off 2020.
Cyberpunk 2077 is an open-world masterpiece that features some of the most immersive and liberating storytelling this industry has to offer. With full freedom to choose V's personality, looks, and gameplay style, Cyberpunk 2077 gives the player an unrelenting amount of control in a world that delivers dozens upon dozens of hours of high-quality content. Cyberpunk 2077 is a mammoth achievement and solidifies CD Projekt RED's place at the top of the pile.
It may not sound like it, but I enjoyed many aspects of Cyberpunk 2077. It doesn't hit the highs of The Witcher 3, but it still has a lot going for it. However, it was released in such an unfinished state that it's hard to give it a positive review. It's an 8.0 game hiding in a 4.0 game wrapper. I might change my tune in a few months, when patches have rolled out, but even when playing the best version available on the PlayStation systems, there's no getting around it: Cyberpunk 2077 might have been mocked for its delays, but it needed more of them. You'll still have fun if you pick it up now, but unless you're dying for it, it's best to wait until it's been patched and improved.
We’ve seen an influx of new members to the sub and one of the questions constantly being asked is “why is the knife I want still out of stock?” Longtime members, meanwhile, are more likely to ask why the same knife costs 30% more today than it did a year ago. These are good questions, but the answer is sufficiently complex that answering in a comment reply doesn’t give a full picture. submitted by marine775 to chefknives [link] [comments] This writeup will aim to present that big picture. We’ll examine how we got here, the current state of affairs, and some predictions for the future. https://preview.redd.it/owygjsf4tvg61.png?width=227&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea8f629779e8d1509658cbbf2841548dbe1ae458 Part I: Demand for high-end kitchen knives is increasingIt’s hard to nail down exactly why demand has increased. There are many underlying causes and yet each of them individually only goes so far. We’ll consider them in combination to understand the surge.Online interest in knives is growingLet’s begin close to home. Here at chefknives, we’re about to reach 100k subscribers. That’s a meteoric rise from a small following just four years ago. Here’s how that growth rate looks: Growth in chefknives subscriber count 2015-present For comparison, here’s that same growth trend compared to two subreddits with about the same subscriber count as of early 2018 (Delaware and Wildlife) Subscriber growth of chefknives (blue) compared to Delaware and Wildlife (green and yellow). Source: subredditstats.com If you look at growth rates across other kitchen knife communities you’ll see similar trends. More people than ever are talking about their favorite work cleaver, looking for an “upgrade” recommendation, or asking how to sharpen their grandpa’s vintage sabatier. We need to be careful in recognizing that these trends play a part in overall growth in phenomena like Reddit, a revival in home cooking, and more. Yet even when compared against these background events, the surge in kitchen knives is remarkable. Reddit approximately doubled its subscribers and posts between 2018-2020. chefknives has doubled three times. Home cooking was undergoing an early renaissance leading into 2020It’s no longer the idyllic 1950s. As economic pressure and then cultural allowances pushed traditional gender roles into a more diverse working environment, the reality of the American kitchen became at once more egalitarian and less dedicated. Critics decried the decline of home meals as a loss of culture. More pragmatic Americans saw it as an economic reality.Ultimately that means more of us in the kitchen out of choice. Nowadays it’s unlikely that Redditors here have (or are) a dedicated parent or spouse who stays at home and cooks all the meals. More likely is a sharing of labor in the kitchen; or, where couples take regular home tasks those chores are less likely to be gender-assigned. Furthermore, the amount of couples choosing to have children is trending downward as the age of first-time parents goes up. Fast food and other pre-fabricated meals are cheap and readily available for those who don’t feel like cooking. Working adults are therefore more likely to choose participation in home cooking than ever before. Against this unique backdrop began a rebirth of cooking at home - Google Consumer Surveys from 2015 showed discovery search terms on the rise (“best recipes” saw 50% increases year-over-year) and online populations spending increased time researching recipes. Social media programming like Tasty, Binging with Babish, Laura in the Kitchen, and Maangchi took over our Facebook feeds and YouTube recommendations out of nowhere. Source: Acosta research \"COVID-19: Reinventing How America Eats\" And then, suddenly, home cooking became a necessity for us all. Restaurants closed and grocery stores faced massive supply chain issues shelving their most popular products. A population already casual fans of Bon Appetit and Beat Bobby Flay suddenly found themselves unexpectedly making fermented foods come alive and, while certainly not giving professional chefs a run for their money, then at least discovering their homemade chicken nuggets beat the hell out of Tyson’s frozen imitation. Many of us saw 2020 turn our nascent interest into a favorite daily hobby. So, like the earlier run on toilet paper there began a run on high-end kitchen knives. Entrenched brands are losing share in the high-end marketUntil now I’ve delayed defining what high-end means. What exactly makes a high-end knife? We’re certainly not talking about $15 supermarket knives or the $30 indestructible house knife that line cooks use to chop parsley and open stubborn cans. Rather, we’re speaking of what somebody buys when they want to invest a little more. That’s the chef de commis who wants to start bringing their own knife to work or the home cook staring longingly through the glass front window of a Williams-Sonoma.Unfortunately, once we get more specific about what a high end knife is, people tend to have wildly different standards. I fully anticipate this will be the graphic people seize upon in the comments section, which is why I added descriptive text. That probably won't stop a few screeches about what high-end actually means but, eh, c'est la vie I’m not going to bother saying where high-end knives begin, but for now let’s simplify to somewhere >=$100. This limits us to a handful of brands (at major retailers, at least) and comprises the vast majority of discussed lines here on the sub. If we look at Internet search terms for high-end brands, we see people losing interest in established names that cannot prove their price to performance value. For example, let’s consider Google search rates associated with traditional German brands like “wusthof,” “henckels,” “messermeister,” etc. source: Google Trends All of these terms have seen a slow decline in search interest from 2007 onwards. In comparison, between 2014 and 2018 the interest in “gyuto” increased on average by 50% while more general cooking terms like “recipe” or “saucepan” have seen slow, steady increases. Why are the traditional Solingen brands losing the interest of consumers? One theory is that knife designs are fads like clothing or trendy restaurants - a full-bolster Wüsthof and Nautica jacket may have been all the rage in the early 2000s, but interests simply change over time. If this theory is correct, the current “fad” of Japanese profiles, damascus cladding, Serbian chef knives, etc. are all temporary tastes which will give way to the next fad. A related explanation is that the Red Queen hypothesis is at work - a theory from evolutionary biology that suggests adaptation is necessary just for survival. Indeed, many of the classic lines of these brands have changed little in the past years and certainly the main differences have been cosmetic. This explanation places blame for brand decline on the brand itself rather than consumer preferences. While unpleasant to point fingers, it’s worth exploring the other side of this coin to get a complete picture. In other words, let’s explore brands that are successfully adapting. The high-end market is pivoting away from Europe and toward Japanese manufacturingIf consumers have a new standard in aesthetic and performance then how can existing brands stay relevant? Large household names like Zwilling, Victorinox, Wüsthof, Kai, and Messermeister have had varying success in introducing new knives in large western retailers. Focusing on the American retail space, we see that knives which successfully embrace the new consumer demand already own or else license pre-existing, non-Western manufacturing. Struggling brands, on the other hand, try to adapt Solingen practice to produce novel designs and the result ranges from “interesting interpretation” to “missed the point.”[1] [2] [3]I won’t try to explain why Wüsthof hasn’t had luck making a competitive nakiri or why Messermeister allowed their awful “usuba” design past the concept phase. Suffice to say, the knives that western retailers are pivoting toward tend to be Japanese imports. This may be occasionally disguised by branding, but make no mistake that these are not German copies. Zwilling simply purchased a large manufacturer in Seki City; it becomes obvious when you put them side-by-side with the other Seki manufacturer sold at major American retailers. Knife lines sold under a German and Japanese brand respectively. Meanwhile, co-opting manufacturing (either by rebranding OEM knives or simply sourcing from the same supply chain) is not exactly a new concept. While this practice is less visible in major brands, it is prolific in the Japanese native market and within smaller retailers in the U.S. For example, take the first design from the Zwilling vs. Kai graphic above and see how it’s copied ad nauseum: I'm not sure how many of these originate from the same knife blanks vs. different sources of steel that just happen to look very, very similar. Okay - so what does this mean for Japanese and European manufacturers? For the Europeans, things are not looking good. Unless they somehow convince consumers that their performance to price ratio is going up (and this is a losing economic proposition at present), then major restructuring of their industry is on the horizon. Meanwhile, the remaining question for Japanese manufacturers is twofold: (1) how do they compete against manufacturing in countries with even lower production cost bases and (2) can they scale up fast enough to deal with this demand? Keep these questions in mind as we’ll soon return to the problem with supply. Conclusion: the global health crisis caused a run on already sparse supplyThe COVID demand surge is unique because potential customers cannot be guided by in-person sales staff toward the high-margin knife they want to sell. Indeed, retail sales of the same Solingen brands listed above have actually been strong even as their internet searches have declined - which is why you continue to find them in malls. So, absent retail staff, interested consumers turned online and the growth rates at chefknives illustrate that.Meanwhile, online communities have been building their following over years. Each community tends to have their favorite brands with some overlap, but this knowledge base tends to be built up over years and decades. That’s because trusted reviews are infrequent (we want more!) and consensus takes time to develop. As consumers turned online, they found communities recommending products already facing scarcity issues. What do you get when combining exponential demand with a shift in consumer preferences for a relatively small market of available knives? A run on supply. Part II: Supply cannot scaleHigh-end knife manufacturing is unlike low-end manufacturingLow-end manufacturing is all about limiting cost and producing volume. Typically parts and processes must work together with high tolerance for error - imagine trying to grind a precise geometry when the heat treatment isn’t even and one portion of the knife abrades more quickly. So, there is almost always a tradeoff in performance for price and production at scale. Workers can be trained in a single task, such as soldering the tang to the blade or inspecting heat-treated batches of blade blanks. Many tasks may be automated altogether with humans only inspecting the results. When most Redditors think “mass production” they likely imagine this kind of manufacturing. Yet “mass production” doesn’t mean low-end by default. Typical factory setting of Japanese knife manufacture. This particular factory produces both low and high-end knives High-end knives can be similarly produced at volume, but the production process is more demanding. With higher performance requirements come lower tolerances for error and this means additional training for workers. Heat treatment must be more exacting so that grinds can fit within tighter parameters. This often requires cross-process knowledge so that the sharpener, forger, and metallurgist each understand and can identify minor discrepancies in the others’ processes. Sometimes the sharpener, forger, metallurgist, and polisher are the same person - though this is less common than marketers would like you to believe. Eventually, workers can specialize in a single aspect like polishing or forging and they become so good that others will solicit their services as part of their own process. So in summary, high-end manufacturing requires more training. Some of that additional training is cross-disciplinary while some is highly specialized. In practice, this means working in various positions across production before settling into a specialty. All that additional training takes years, which is why apprenticeships and decades-long careers are the norm in high-end Japanese manufacturing. There are limits on how quickly new workers can be trainedNow equipped with understanding of the training required for a high-end manufacturer, we’re ready to dive into the story of a Japanese bladesmith who we’ll call Kenji. It’s 2018 and he wants to scale up production rapidly.First a little bit more about Kenji. He didn’t start his career in bladesmithing - in fact, despite his city being famous for metalworking and knives, everybody told him that industry was moribund back in the 2000s when he went to university. So, he worked his first years designing heavy machinery before a family emergency unexpectedly brought him into the family business. Years later, he has grown into a management role for the production where he has two full-time employees plus an apprentice. One of those employees is the father of his childhood friend. The two families’ knife businesses merged several years ago. Now it’s 2018 and Kenji is seeing demand skyrocket. He knows that even if production doubled, he would have a hard time meeting demand. So, how can he double production as quickly as possible while maintaining approximately equal product quality? In short, he cannot. We’ve already covered how slow training can be, but hiring experienced workers to train them can be equally taxing. That employee whose child was schoolmates with Kenji? None of his sons went into knife making because they saw it as a dead end professionally. Similarly a generation of family businesses shrunk or died out and so Kenji was a dying breed when the market suddenly became hot. Even as knifemaking becomes a viable career once again, finding apprentices is not simple. Many are mindful that consumer interest could quickly return to apathy and such a career does not pay dividends for decades. Kenji’s story is the norm in high-end Japanese production. Even at a breakneck pace, it will take him several years to double production. If the market should falter during this time, it would be disastrous for his business’ solvency. Historical data for "Kenji"
Ballpark numbers for the manufacturer Kenji manages. In mid-2018, he began subcontracting the majority of his sharpening and polishing labor and changed his product line to use more prefabricated steels. 2020 saw major business interruptions due to the COVID19 crisis. Price increases are slowed by the business landscapeMeanwhile, the free market capitalists here on Reddit have been positively wetting themselves waiting to ask “why don’t the knife makers simply raise their prices?” The simple answer is that Japan’s economy is a free market economy in the same way choosing dinner as a family is a free market decision. Piss off your partner and you can guarantee you won’t get any dinner.Of course price increases have been happening over time, but slowly. Many makers are still fulfilling backorders - sellers swap stories about shipments arriving for orders placed years prior. Others are under obligations to sell via wholesalers or trade brokers who behave territorially when vendors or other middlemen encroach on their network. Finally, every maker is conscious of how their prices play into the overall landscape of colleagues and competition. Did you apprentice under another bladesmith? If so, what happens if you start selling your knives for more than him? What message would that send and how would he react? The net effect of this is a market with unusually rigid prices and inflexible scalability. These problems are not intractable, but like all market shortcomings they require time to fix. Beginning in 2020, that time suddenly became equally scarce. Conclusion: the global health crisis slowed production of an already scarce supplyAs the world left the late 2010s, Japanese manufacturing was struggling to scale its production and downstream sellers began to slowly change pricing expectations to meet the new demand surge. Both changes were gradual if not energized - scarce supply was spurring young people into rejoining an industry long thought dead in Japan. Eager young apprentices began showing up to job openings in Sanjo, Seki, and Tokyo for the first time in generations.Then suddenly that already scarce supply lost crucial days of business production as Japan first began implementing workplace hygiene measures before entering a state of emergency from April until May. These along with other interruptions have severely hampered production capabilities during a time when the business pipeline could hardly afford it. The run on supply that we explored at the end of Part I is different than the slow demand increases from the decade prior. Large manufacturers had time to expand operations into China and Indonesia while small manufacturers took on apprentices. OEM practices improved and producers were able to streamline their work over months and years. Everybody lagged a little behind with the promise that soon, supply would begin to scale as young apprentices became journeymen and then master smiths. This run on supply caused a multiplier in demand as production scaled down. Manufacturers no longer lag slightly behind their orders - vendors are reporting it will take years for operations to recover and resume the same pace they had before. Part III: What’s the future of kitchen knives?Now we know why the knives are all gone and that the problem is unlikely to be resolved in a few extra months of production. So, what does the future hold for high-end knives? I will propose some educated guesses for what happens over the coming years.Either Japanese manufacturing practices will scale and expand their industry or else interest will move on - potentially to China, Indonesia, and VietnamThe Japanese market is already being eaten from both ends. At the very high end, we’re witnessing the rise of custom makers in the US and Europe whose individual pieces command price tags well into the “collectible” range for Japanese knives. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturing is eating into the bottom range of Japan’s knife market with Indonesia and Vietnam closing in. Some of this movement is driven by Japanese companies who outsource low-end manufacturing, but it’s likely that jobs continue to move offshore en masse.The key question is whether Japanese manufacturing can scale quickly enough to preserve their market share at the $100-500 range. The domestic Japanese market likely needs 10-20 years to scale up production. The question is whether foreign manufacturing needs this long to capture market share, even if Japan does manage to scale up eventually. The past five years have seen neighboring countries scaling up their production quality and doubling quantity every few years, so things are not looking great for the domestic Japanese market. Here is a predictive model based on the past five years of growth. Predicted model of market share after 15 years wherein Japan doubles production while China, Indonesia, and Vietnam each double every 3-5 years. Today’s most popular knife fads will be replaced by new onesOne thing we haven’t mentioned until now are the hangers-on of high-end knives. For example, the prolific Sakai Takayuki VG-10 damascus knives are streamlined imitators of more expensive knives like Anryu or Yu Kurosaki. They take certain aspects like the hammered (tsuchime) finish and suminagashi pattern and build the knife around them, allowing the knife to spread more quickly because of the reduced prices.Yet there are even more extreme imitators coming out of China and Southeast Asia who move faster and are less scrupulous about marketing. They flood Facebook with ads featuring shiny damascus blades with handles so colorful it looks like an M&M mass murder. These companies move massive volume before customers grow wise and thus hasten the lifetime of the fad. For some, it’s an educational experience. For others, they’re just happy they scratched the itch. At any rate, movement like this eventually spells the end of one consumer taste to be replaced with another. So, I predict that the current fads (VG-10 damascus, hammered finishes, serbian chef knives) will soon fade and be replaced by others. One way this prediction might come to pass is that two years from now semi-scam companies will start advertising cheap cu mai (five layer steel with a stripe of nickel) offerings instead of their current Sakai Takayuki imitations. Or maybe it will be a faux kasumi finish or etched core stainless-clad instead. Successful manufacturers will begin to partner with small, non-Japanese makers to innovate in their designs and productionZwilling has already done this with Bob Kramer once, so why not again? The most popular U.S. custom makers are struggling to produce at volume, so these partnerships could solve the problem from both ends. I predict we’ll soon see some version of Wüsthof releasing a line of Maumasi-designed blades or Victorinox licensing Don Nguyen’s handles.This will, of course, come with challenges. Knife enthusiasts mostly have bitter tastes in their mouths with the memory of the Shun Ken Onion and members of the forum here have pointed out that ZKramers struggle to produce consistently good geometries. I don’t necessarily predict these partnerships will produce good high-end knives. ConclusionThe knives are, indeed, all gone. And that’s unlikely to change for the near future. The brand you desperately want to come back into stock will continue to face shortage issues for years and may never come back at all. But that’s okay.Instead, newcomers will soon replace the current favorites. Five years from now, the most sought-after knives will have diversified and new names will replace the old ones slowly. In the past five years, those new names have mostly been Japanese. I suspect the new ones may not be. Until then, may the back in stock notifications be ever in your favor. |
I’m just looking for fmj for target practice. Nothing fancy. If you could do them for $400 a case of 1000 I can talk.FC: I can get you $400/case on 1000 but it'll be foreign made non brass 9mm ammo.
Pretty much what your saying is no matter how much money I try to spend, you’re continuing your get rich quick prices. People like you are direct part of the problem. It’s one thing to make money and it’s another to try to high way rob people. Hope you’re proud of yourself.FC: I can assure you that this isn't a get rich quick situation. I spent plenty of money investing in half a million rounds of ammo about FOUR years ago during the Trump slump and I'm just getting around to realizing profits now. I am not getting rich, nor am I doing it quickly. I hardly think that any investment that takes 4 years to realize a gain is quick.
No deal? Or what's the plan?My reply is interrupted. Their oldest child admires the batman dollar on my safe. The youngest child is incessantly clicking a spare pilot G2 pen I had on my desk.
Hi Will it's John from facebook marketplace I was looking at the glock bb gun and head phones will you show me a pic of the actually glock and does it have a clip and a slide,,??¿?? My old one did but I left it at my apartment I was sharing with friends but I miss having it lmk asap please and thanks sincerely Jeff K.FC: Lets start here. 1. I don't sell Glock BB guns. 2. I don't have head phones. Were you only interested in BB guns?
Ya I was on Facebook marketplace looking for BB c02 pistolssigh
WARNING: 8TH GRADE READING LEVEL REQUIRED FOR MATERIAL submitted by poopbutt6942069 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Intro/Disclaimeryeah its long as fuck, but read for tendies. If its too long suck a bear dick and move on. This is real analysis of the business model, not just a bunch of emojis. It is so long because of the niche field it is operating in and how a lot of key points are not understood well by the WSB community. This company really is a diamond in the rough and a great way to play future trends with less risk as you're not picking winners. Its the "picks and shovels" play of electrification and renewable energies. I'll explain the realistic case for how this company is soon going to be running the best tendie mine for decades to come.This is my second DD post on now $MP, formerly $FVAC, and i'm back to discuss the developments of the company since my pre-merger post and add some further analysis about the valuation of the company and its future. There has been too much really shitty DD from both bulls and bears on this companywhere very few people on here have a real understanding of this company, their business model, and the future. First - read my original DD post in order to have a decent understanding of the backstory cause I'm not about to type out all that shit again or explain what I've already written. Read that first then come back: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/jgvarn/fvac_dd_evchina_tension_play/ That post discusses mainly international tensions and the role REE's but this one i'll speak more on the business case of this company and how even without geopolitical tensions it is a true tendie mine. Second - no I'm not a bag holder Ive been in since it was a pre-merged SPAC my average on my shares is about $14 and my LEAP is far far ITM and no I'm not selling any of them. Also, as i referenced in the post I work in a very similar field and interned in college at a mineral mine in the refining aspect as a chemical engineer, so while I'm not an expert at this I have more insight than the average retard and I am trying to give out tendies before the boomers take them from us. I will try my best to explain the business model of a mining company and why this company is the most unique and interesting way to get tech company level growth with the associated free cash flow while not having to be anywhere near as innovative. Ill discuss a lot of the bear arguments for this company as well and try to de-bunk them as most don't really hold water once you look into them the slightest bit. Background of NdPrWhile the company produces as basket of Rare Earth, the plant is aiming to focus on NdPr and other permanent magnet materials in order to play the trend of EV's and electrification. These magnets are extremely important for so many technologies due to how Electric motors work. To put it simply, at current technology the only way to convert electricity to motion or the only way to convert motion to electricity relies on permanent magnets. Im not gonna try to explain more than that because I too am retarded but if you don't believe me or want to learn how watch this video:yeah i know you didn't watch that video, but just imagine you did and now believe me. However, because it works both ways BOTH electric motors AND electric generators rely on this technology. This is key for understanding how NdPr is the best way to play both the trends of electrification AND renewables. First, electrification is most embodied by the rise in EV's in the future, and while that is predicted to be the fastest growing segment of NdPr demand it is foolish to not to account for other evolving technologies reliant on electric motors as well. Robotics will be a huge growth market and electrification of other industries will rely on NdPr permanent magnets. The other massive growth opportunity for permanent magnets is through renewable energies. Wind energy (and possible future motion based energy harvesting tech like tidal energy) work through harvesting mechanical motion and turning a generator to create electricity. Wind power doesn't work without electric generators which don't work without magnets. In addition, wind tech is advancing down a path to require even more magnets due to improvements is Permanent Magnet Direct-Drive (PMDD) technology from the current Gearbox doubly-fed induction Generator (DFIG). Essentially what that means is the new technology will take out the gearbox currently used in wind mills and replacing them with more efficient direct driving technology allowing more mechanical motion into electricity. These new generators require stronger magnets, thus more magnetic material. Read more about that here: TLDR: They mine mainly permanent magnet materials that at current scientific understanding CANNOT be replaced due to their unique electromagnetic properties. TLDR on the TLDR: Special Rocks no replacing. Need special rocks. $MP's expansion plansA lot of bears like to bring up the fact that $MP is still reliant on China to do their refining and they're correct... for now. Currently they mine on site and refine to REE concentrates which they then send to china to refine into Rare Earth Oxides (REO's), which then get send to become metal alloys and then finally to magnets. Currently is the only location in the world to refine past concentrate material so $MP is forced to send their material there, but that is why the went public. The intent of them going public was to raise funds in order build an on-site REO facitility, which is scheduled for completion in 2022 and is already started. They already have enough cash on hand to furnish this upgrade as they had over $500M on hand at the end of Q3, and they also are a cash flow positive company already before even moving downstream. There are EV infrastructure plays with much worse valuations and years away from breaking even on cash flow, yes I'm talking to you $QS bagholders... that tech is unproven and there are so many battery competitors in a field where there WILL be a winnerWhy would they want to move downstream when they're already profitable??? Because the further downstream they go the higher margins they earn and the more tendies they can mine for us. Refining raw materials to useful materials is a value adding process and thus creates more value for the company that does it. Once they complete this expansion they plan on going to stage 3 of their business model, the ability to build magnets and other final products of REE's in America. They have not decided/disclosed their plans for this, whether it is through construction of an onsite facility, an acquisition, or a joint venture, but it is in the plans. This is expected to come online around 2025 and when the insane cash flow can begin for the company. I don't have any reason to doubt the validity of their intention as its just a continuation of the business model they are currently implementing and the majority of the corporate rhetoric is related to "mine-to-magnet" and "restoring the REE supply chain to America." What does this mean for the company? as they move further and further downstream they will increase their margins from this action alone, but it gets even better. This can be shown in their in-house calculations of their 2023 adj. EBITDA target of $252M ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf it is important to note that those numbers are from the current step they are taking right now in building the REO refining facility. Adding further downstream capabilities will only cause that EBITDA value to grow as margins improve, but next I'll discuss where their margins will improve from EVEN MORE. TLDR: downstream expansion is a way to increase margins and therefore free cash flow for the company. TLDR of TLDR: Special rock get more special. Get more tendies for special rock. Business model of mining companies and why $MP has insane growth potential\**This is the most important part of this long ass post, if you read one section, then read this***A big disconnect on a lot of DD in this sub and analysis elsewhere is the economics of how a mining company works. A mine is by definition a COMMODITY PLAY, which I know is not as exciting as a tech company, BUT it will experience tech sector growth for a period of time and then experience a period of time in which develop into a cash cow business reaping huge dividends for shareholders. What i mean by a commodity play is through the economics of how a mine operates. Given a mine at a fixed production volume, the costs on a year in year out basis are relatively similar. What i mean by this is the cost $MP to mine and refine into concentrate will be the same no matter the price of their product. However, the revenue they receive is dependent on the market price of their product, which is what varies the most. An easy way to describe this is through taking a look at their Q3 2020 financial results presentation: ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf That value of Production cost (at the current stage of just creating REE concentrates) will realistically stay the same as that value is from the cost of labor, energy for machinery, administrative costs, etc. While these numbers will vary from quarter to quarter these are costs not predicted to experience rapid growth and this is what is important to realize. It costs roughly the same amount of money to pay someone to blast ore, dig it into dump trucks, pay operators to refine into ore, etc. Don't trust me, look into how steel companies operate, like this sub's favorite $MT. The revenue they receive is dependent on the price of REE's, which is NOT PREDICTED TO BE FLAT. Here is the historic graph of Neodymium from 2011-current: ​ https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/neodymium **If you are an investor in $MP (which you should be) this is an important website to pay attention to because understanding the market dynamics of their product is important to understanding the valuation of this company. ** Allow me to disect that graph a little bit: 1st Peak: From the aftermath of the supply shock from 2010/2011 from the Japanese Navy and Chinese fisherman story i discusses in my previous $FVAC post i linked above. China lowered exports by 40% and the price shot up drastically as industries across the world tried to gobble up as much NdPr as fast as possible in order to ensure their production lines. That was then followed by china flooding the market and selling back that backlog. that caused prices to fall off a cliff and ended up taking molyorp out of business. I'll discuss the Molycorp saga later more in depth and the differences of them and $MP. 2nd Peak: This peak (late 2017) is from the Trade war trump caused with china and is another good explanation of the correlation between REE's and geopolitics i discussed in my last DD post. The middle 2019 peak is again the trade war heating up again. 3rd peak: where we are now. This is from the increased tailwind of EV adoption, more from asia and Europe than the US and because china has been threatening to use REE's as a political tool again, which again i referenced more in my last DD post. However going forward if you want to predict the amount of revenue MP will earn its important to understand the market dynamic and I'd like to discuss why the price is geopolitics aside predicted to steadily increase at a very fast rate. MP, like any other commodity play, relies on the supply-demand dynamic of the sector, and REE demand growth is on track to far outstrip the supply growth. This will result increased prices per ton, but MP's costs stay the same. This is the beauty of the company, as the price goes up their margins go up too! MP and market analysts predicted over a 100% growth in NdPr magnets in the next 10 years: ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf Don't believe that metric? check this more in depth one: ​ https://www.arultd.com/products/supply-and-demand.html This graph shows most important metric as it shows that the world at current rate is not scaling up to meet demand. THIS GRAPH INCLUDES CURRENT PLANNED EXPANSIONS INCLUDING INCREASED RECYCLING. What does this mean?? There is a huge mismatch in projected demand and supply and if you don't know what that will mean then ask your wife's boyfriend about supply-demand graphs from their economics class. The result will be massively increased prices of permanent magnet materials because the world will not be able to mine and refine enough to satisfy demand, so they will be able to increase their prices. BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, MP'S COSTS PER TON WILL REMAIN THE SAME. So what is the gist of this coupled with MP moving toward downstream expansion? MP's margins will increase incredibly from a double whammy of moving downstream AND supply-demand imbalance. Now what does that mean for you?? that means $MP has a very realistic and conservative path toward becoming a company with RIDICULOUS free cash flow. What does that mean for MP? That means that the company will be raking in cash and will be extremely flexible due to their balance sheet. They will be able to expand operations or acquire competitors in order to increase their market share and production volumes OR they will be able to transition into a boomer dividend company that will pay you tendies each year. They could do either of those very easily because the company HAS NO DEBT. In fact, $MP ended Q3 2020 with $507M CASH on hand to finance their future expansions. Okay, i know dividends are boring but the market will begin to price in that future dividend potential and give your calls many tendies along the path to pricing in their dividend power. TLDR: Supply demand imbalance (with geopolitical tensions as a wild card) will result in insane free cash flow in the future for this company. TLDR of the TLDR: People want more special rock more than can make special rock. People give you more tendies for special rocks. Why Supply won't be able to scale up as fastA very important assumption in my analysis is the inability for supply to scale up as fast as demand and I'd like to explain this more in depth as it is the crux of this DD. This is where my experience in mineral refining is valuable as I can weigh in on this aspect. Over time there will be more suppliers that come into the business and we are seeing that already, however this is where the timetables of that come into play. Simply put supply can't go up because companies will be slowed greatly due to the time it will take to get up and running and the incredible amount of upfront capital needed before even starting up the mine. If a company is interested in getting into the field there isn't a fast path in because the companies can't just decide to go into the business and then go to the "REE refining machinery store" and buy the equipment and have them get set up. All the machinery in chemical manufacturing plants (REE refining counts as chemical engineering so hear me out) has a long path in order to reach the optimum design. Ill outline the gist of this here:
Here is what is important, any entity trying to enter the sector will have enormous upfront costs in buying the land, designing the plant, buying the machinery like excavators, dump trucks, pipelines, pay employees well before starting due to training on the machinery. Im not sure the exact amounts of money needed but it would easily be in the 100s of millions at least. Then once all that upfront capital is sourced, plant designed, people trained, etc the operation would take YEARS to get out of all that debt and achieve meaningful positive cash flow. It is only a matter of time for $MP to have significant domestic competition, but by the time these operations could begin operating $MP will be so far ahead in production and have a significantly stronger balance sheet than these companies could have. $MP will remain years ahead of any other domestic competitors, even though competition will come. TLDR: At current outlook supply growth won't match demand growth and even if more competitors pop up to compete it'll take years to start operating and even more years to match $MP's ability. TLDR on the TLDR: Not enough people finding special rock. More people want special rock than can get special rock. They pay more for special rock. $MP's competitors, both domestic and internationalA large argument that bears like to make is that competition is coming in the US, and they are 100% correct.... but it won't matter because AGAIN this is a commodity play, not a tech company. They make magnets, their revenue will depend on the price of their product. Buyers from this are not looking at $MP like you would look at $TSLA vs. $NIO or apple vs android where you could argue one is better than the other or consumers will adopt one over the other. There isn't brand recognition, increased utility, or consumer favorites in magnets, they're fucking magnets. Think about it like another commodity, lumber. If you go to $HD to buy some wood you aren't staring at two different planks of the same type of tree and picking one because of which timber company felled it or which milling company milled it. You just buy lumber and go home because it is wood. A timber company isn't outright threatened by another timber company popping up, as long as the demand-supply dynamic in the market stays the same the first timber company is unaffected. That is why it won't matter WHEN more domestic and international competitors pop up. As long as demand outstrips supply then commodity companies will make more and more money. Now I am not trying to bullshit people so I'll discuss the international and domestic competition, but Ill explain more in depth why i don't give a shit about them.Domestic: The ticker that cannot be named due to it being banned. If you take a look at that company it is a Uranium producer that is going to re-purpose machinery onsite from uranium production to REE production and they have successfully done pilot plant level processing. However if you analyze their production numbers you'll see that the scale they plan on producing is not quite at the level $MP will. They plan on refining 15,000 tons of ore per year with an estimated 55% REE concentration, which leaves an estimated 8,250 tons of REE per year, of which 22% is NdP (all their numbers not mine), which leaves annual production of 1,815 tons/yr. These numbers are pretty good and I do own a stake in this company because I like the potential, but its scale is not quite the scale of $MP. $MP is predicting a run rate of 6,075 tons/yr of NdPr, so yes the banned ticker is a decent competitor but its only predicting to be 1/3 the size of $MP annual production volume. A downside of the banned ticker is that they still are focusing on Uranium production so its not a pure REE play, but Uranium has a pretty decent bull case for the future so i don't want to slander that ticker too much. However, again, these are commodity plays, $MP having competition, even domestic, doest really affect their business plans or bull case. Additionally, the banned ticker is sourcing its ore rom Chemours' location in GA, but getting milled in Utah, so this is a long term inefficiency to consider as well that $MP won't have to worry about once their stage 2 REO mill is complete. the banned tickers financial health is pretty decent, but its market cap is $516M at close 1/4 which is just slightly above amount of cash on hand $MP had at the end of Q3 2020, $502M. That company is more of an investment opportunity than a competitor, if its even worth investing in. Other emerging domestic competitors: link to article explaining them all Im not going to go deep into each one but you can see that many are slowed down to the process I explained above about how expensive and time consuming it is to reach operational status. These companies will be coming online, but won't be profitable for a while and won't be able to provide the same returns to investors for even longer. International competitors: Lynas Corp. This is an Australian mining company that has also received pentagon funds to improve the non-China production capacity. They trade over the counter and are a real deal competitor and also worth investing in but their growth potential isn't as clear or easy as in the US. They have pentagon funding more so out of desperation by the pentagon to get more production in the western world than loving to invest in an Australian company. In the future I would imagine a lot of this government support will go toward US based companies. International competitors: all the china ones. yes they produce the largest amount of material in the world and do it the cheapest but this is the result of none to very little environmental protection. Once the supply chain can go "mine to magnet" many companies will look to diminish their exposure to chinese companies to ensure their supply chains are not at the whims of the Chinese government. In addition, $MP is the cleanest REE mine in the world and a lot of environmentally conscious companies will want to support clean mined REE's and once domestic production is high enough there could be regulations passed to further incentivize purchasing domestically produced REE's. All these companies were included in the forecast of supply in 2030. Even with these companies coming online $MP is still positioned for incredible returns. TLDR: Yes competition is coming, but there is already competition. Its also a commodity play so its not facing replacement or redundancy like many other growth markets TLDR on the TLDR: Others find special rock. Your special rock still worth many tendies. You still get many tendies. Why this is NOT molycorp 2.0The most common point of argument against this company is that people bring up the fact that the mine $MP operates used to be run by Molycorp, which went bankrupt. However if you read into that transaction it really isn't that scary. Molycorp did go under but this was in a period of price instability and they were not running as good of an operation. Molycorp operated during the 2010-2011 peak of REE's when china restricted supply. Molycorp stock went up a ton in addition to their revenue and thus they decided to invest in milling capabilities to create REO's (I know this is $MP's plan but don't get scared yet). Because of US EPA restrictions it was wildly expensive and at bankruptcy they had $1.7B in investments into capital projects to improve their refining capability, but the subsequent REE price collapse when china "turned the taps back on" to the world supply caused them to not afford operation. The site then changed hands back and forth until it was bought by $MP's current management for $40M. They then invested in it after literally buying for less than pennies on the dollar and got it up and running more efficiently than before. Last quarter Q3 2020 they ran 3.2x the REE concentrate production volume than Molycorp ever did:​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf They got to buy over $1.7B worth of investments for $40M and have proven they have turned those investments into operating profit. In addition, previous operations prioritized Cerium production for FCC catalysts. $MP has transitioned the goal product to be NdPr as it has much better growth potential to give it long term possibility. In addition, the market climate Molycorp operated under was not as forgiving as now. Back then there wasn't the tailwind of increasing EV adoption, or the rise of other high tech growth sector reliant on REE's. Molycorp was too early and inefficient to win in the market and didn't have anywhere close to the amount of governmental support for the industry. There is bipartisan support on all levels, i mentioned this a bit in my last DD post, but since then - and this is big and shows the scale of gov support- THE LAST STIMULUS BILL HAD $800M IN SUPPORT OF INCREASING DOMESTIC REE PRODUCTION! Molycorp didn't have anywhere close to this level of government support. And again, the pentagon invested $9M into $MP to help fund their REO mill because the pentagon views the ability to refine REO's as a matter of national security. Discussing Concerns about Biden PresidencyPeople who say this shit clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Biden (or his puppet masters but who cares money is all green) has said he supports REE mining multiple times source. His team knows their big environmental initiatives rely on REE production and that domestic production is important to keep American industry at the whims of China. Yeah Trump was more hawkish with china but lets not act like a democratic presidency is going to let china walk all over the US or that Biden and other democrats will stop their push for EV's and clean energy. REE's are a cornerstone piece to so many of Biden's plans there is no way he turns his back on this company.Discussion of Shenghe Resources and China and their relationships with $MPThe one real concern that people have is their partnership with Shenghe Resources where Shenghe has agreed to buy all $MP concentrate through 2021 and shenghe is a stakeholder in $MP. Many view this as a negative, but i think it should be seen as a good way to ensure survival in the gap between now and the final magnet production. A big issue would be if China chose to stop importing the MP concentrate, which would give MP no customers. Since this would adversely affect Shenge it makes it less likely and also the fact that MP produces 15% of the world's REE concentrate it would hurt the supply in china, which is huge. In fact, China removed their 25% tariff on importing REE material, read this source as it also shows how china is buying up all the concentrate they can. Japan has the capability to go from REO to NdPr magnet as well so if china ends up fucking MP, starting in 2022 when their REO site is in operation then they will be able to sell their REO to Japanese companies to bridge the gap before they have their own magnet making capability.​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf China is not likely to fuck MP and stop buying their concentrate as it will hurt china's wallet and ability to produce goods while only increasing the US government support for going mine to magnet domestically. China realistically views their dominance as ending at some point now, but they know they will still be able to control the market because of their scale regardless of whether they buy MP concentrates or not. Also, if Shenghe doesn't buy their concentrates then they forfeit their stake in MP. they wouldn't be allowed to sell them on the market, the shares would just disappear, so it would effectively be a massive stock buyback and as long as the REO mill is complete then they just sell to Japanese magnet makers. Mine Life discussionTheir S-1 states that at current proven reserves they have about 47 years of mine life left. That can be grown from drilling and exploration of more mineable material, which they stated they plan on doing. in addition, if they for some reason don't find more mineable ore on their land and don't buy more land with ore, then they could simply refine ore from other mines as the real cost barrier isn't the digging out of the ground, it is the milling.TLDR$MP will to the moon over the next few years.Postions: shares for virgins and LEAPs for chads. ​ Edit: addressing $QS collapse today (1/4 after a -40% on $QS) and the associated EV infrastructure. I think $QS hitting the shitter, well, predictable. People flooded to it as a result of attempting to find a parallel way to play the rise of EV's without understanding the company. $QS is a solid state battery technology, but I have never held a stake in it because, well, all it is is an idea or concept. It fell today as a result of a report criticizing the basis of its technology and I have to agree, the tech is not proven and even if it works as advertised there is a question of whether it could ever solidify its valuation, even after its collapse today. Solid state batteries MAY be the future, but for now their real place is in university and R&D laboratories as the tech is not proven to work as advertised. They are in the same situation as liquid metal batteries, cool ideas without the proof they will be successful in the market. HOWEVER, $MP is a way to play EV's & Renewable energy without the risk because $MP is not relying on scientific breakthroughs, it is a commodity producer. They don't care who wins the EV race, the battery tech or company that wins the battery race, or the wind energy companies that win contracts, all they care about is the mass adoption fo those technologies. It is a unique way to play these trends without having to bet on winners or losers in the field as you're betting solely on the industry. The company is positioned to benefit greatly regardless of who wins and lets be real, the market is incredibly saturated with companies that won't win. Look at all the different EV makers big and small, the different battery companies, etc. I have a tough believing that all the small EV makers will have a shot when the large auto companies get more involved. I believe the best way to see profit without that risk is through symmetrical bets with no breakthroughs needed, just the market to develop EDIT 2: Further DD/ another take. Yeah maybe 1 person will actually read it but it’s a lot shorter than mine, really won’t take long to read the thread. It is not my DD but rather an obscure Twitter account I have no connection to but they bring up further interesting bull arguments and address current valuation better than I can. I have no finance background so I didn’t try to pin a price or movement. https://twitter.com/dawn_capital/status/1346134740659818496?s=21 Edit 3: Research report from brand essence research estimates that REE market size is expected to reach $20.6 Billion by 2025, significantly higher the the 11 billion size from 2019 with a CAGR of 8.2%. MP currently produces 15% of the ore in the world and in 2022 is expected to be milling REO. Let’s say global production does increase and $MP doesn’t expand out and falls to 10% of global supply. That’s still about $2 Billion in revenue with higher margins than they operate on right now because of REO production.... it’s a tendie mine🚀🚀🚀 https://brandessenceresearch.biz/chemicals-and-materials/top-growth-on-rare-metals-market-size-and-share/Summary Disclaimer: this is my thoughts on the company and market, yet I am on this site and also retarded. I am long via shares and call and am a true believer in them but best in mind my confirmation bias. Not investment advice, do your own DD, buying and selling $MP is your own decision |
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